Friday, March 20, 2015

2015 MLB Division Preview Series: National League Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals (2014 Finish: 90-72, 1st Place)
When you look across the N.L. Central, the Cardinals are the most complete team on paper. Starting with their starting pitching, they have the best starting rotation in the division. Adam Wainright is their ace and CY Young award winner that you know they'll depend on all year. Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia have been proven starters the last few years. John Lackey is that reliable veteran in this group. The biggest question in their rotation is Michael Wacha, who injured all of last year. The question is can he stay healthy and pitch an entire season. That is question that Cardinals fans have been asking a lot (Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainright are names that come to mind). With their bullpen, Trevor Rosenthal is basically unhittable as their closer.  They have some good solid veterans in their bullpen with Randy Choate, Jordan Waldon, Matt Belisle, and the youngster Carlos Martinez. I really like Jordan Walden on this team with his track record of being a setup man with the Braves and Angels. The question though is how much depth do they have pitching wise if either one of their starters gets hurt. You figure Martinez and Belisle could make starts if someone gets hurt, but outside of that what do they have.  Offensively the Cardinals have a good mix of veteran and young bats that make up one of the National League's best lineups offensively. Yadier Molina is the best catcher in baseball. Matt Holliday puts up good numbers seemingly every year.  Matt Adams and Matt Carpenter bring some good pop to their lineup. I like what Jason Heyward brings to the table in St. Louis.  The Cardinals have kind of lacked some power in right field after Beltran left and after trading Allen Craig to Boston last year. What it creates though is a platoon and a decent platoon with Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos. I fully expect the Cardinals to win the Central unless something distastrous happens (and I hate saying that because I'm a Brewers fan).
2. Pittsburgh Pirates (2014 Finish: 88-74, 2nd Place)
The Pirates over the last few years have proven they can be a consistent winner unlike the 20 years prior. This team is the closest thing to the Cardinals in this division. In their rotation, A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano are proven veterans. I really like Liriano and always have since he signed with Pittsburgh a few seasons ago. Gerrit Cole is one of the best young pitchers in the National League. They have some good depth behind that with Vance Worley, Jeff Locke, and Charlie Morton. So they have at least a few guys who can step in just in case an injury happens to their rotation. Mark Melancon is their best bullpen arm as their closer. It will be interesting to see how Melancon will fair with a full season (and I do mean full because Grilli was traded to the Angels early in the season last year). Offensively, Pedro Alvarez and Andrew McCutcheon are guys who can put up 30 home run seasons year in and year out. McCutcheon is a MVP candidate year in and year out. Neil Walker had his best season last year, so it will be interesting to see how he'll follow that up. The Pirates might have the best young outfield in the majors with McCutcheon, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco. This team has a lot of young promising hitters with Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison. It will be interesting to see who plays first base for them this year. Alvarez played some first in spring training, so we'll see if they go with him and Harrison at third. Otherwise, I wouldn't be surprised if Corey Hart gets some time there as well.
3. Milwaukee Brewers (2014 Finish: 82-80, 3rd Place)
Last year, it was a tale of two seasons for the Brewers. The five month stretch where they were in first place and the last month of the season where they collapsed. The question is which Brewers team will we see in 2015? The Brewers just like the Cardinals and Pirates have good pitching. You know what you are gonna get out of Kyle Lohse. To be honest, I was kind of disappointed in Matt Garza, who finished with eight wins all of last year.  Some of Garza's losses from last year might have to do with the bullpen and lack of offense in August and September last year. I expected more wins out of a guy who signed a five year deal in the off-season last year.  Wily Peralta is clearly one of the best arms in this rotation, and is the future ace of the Brewers after posting 13 plus win seasons the last two years. Michael Fiers has had some impressive moments in his career (in 2012 and 2014 specfically), so it will be interesting to see what they can get out of him with a full season in the rotation. The Brewers seem to have a lot of faith in Jimmy Nelson, otherwise they wouldn't have traded Yovani Gallardo in the off-season. To me, there's a really small sample size, so you really don't know what you are going to get out of him. The bad thing about trading Gallardo is that it created a lack of depth in their starting pitching. So if one of these pitchers goes down during the year, where will they go remains to be seen. The bullpen is interesting to me because they started off really good last year and fell off a bit. For 2015, I like the depth though with the back end with Francisco Rodriguez and Jonathon Broxton at the back end.  It will be interesting to see how K-Rod follows up a 44 save season. I like what Jeremy Jeffress and Will Smith bring to the table. Jeffress was a big arm at the end of the year last year. Hopefully, Will Smith can be consistent for a full year as he was one of their better arms at the beginning of the 2014 season last year.  It will be interesting to see what they get out of Tyler Thornburg and Jim Henderson. Thornburg was a big arm early in the year last year, so if he can stay healthy it would be big. Same goes for Jim Henderson, it was so unexpected last year when he didn't come out of the bullpen on opening day. If Henderson stays healthy as well that just adds just as more depth to that bullpen. Offensively, there are a lot of questions. Will Ryan Braun stay healthy and get back to being the Ryan Braun of old? Can the Brewers at least have some patience at the plate? Will the Brewers finally get something out of a first basemen for a change? Can Scooter Gennett hit both righties and lefties? A lot of questions for the 2015 Brewers offensively. Let's start with Ryan Braun first. Clearly, if the Brewers are going to go anywhere, he has to stay healthy and be the old Ryan Braun. The Brewers won't make the playoffs if he doesn't produce and have a typical 30 home run Ryan Braun season. With the rest of the offense, the Brewers have two really good hitting catchers with Jonathon Lucroy and Martin Maldonado. Lucroy had his best season last year and is one of the best catchers in all of baseball. Just like the last few years, the Brewers will have a platoon at first hopefully better than years past. Adam Lind brings some much needed lefty power to this lineup, but how much can he play during the season after all he has had some injury problems in the past. Lucroy will split time with him at first base in addition to catching. If this doesn't work out, I wouldn't be surprised if the Brewers make a move for Ryan Howard. The Brewers infield is full of questions. No more Rickie Weeks, so no more platoon there so it's up to Scooter Gennett. What will they get out of Scooter Gennett? Can he hit against both righties and lefties? We'll see. The other question is Jean Segura, who had an all-star year in 2013, but had a hard season last year with the loss of his son. A guy the Brewers really hope can get back to his 2013 form. Aramis Ramirez is going into his final season in baseball, and he has put up consistent numbers his whole entire career. The question is how will they replace him after this year.  The Brewers have a good outfield full of some Gold Glove type arms. Carlos Gomez is energetic player all around. As I said it will be interesting to see if Ryan Braun can stay healthy and put up those typical 30 home run season Ryan Braun numbers.  Khris Davis is decent in left field has the pop at the plate, but just like this whole roster is impatient at the plate. Having a Gold Glove winner as a fourth outfielder is big for the Brewers because it will help later in games when they sub out Davis for Gerardo Parra. There are some good things about the Brewers, but it is just what are you going to get out of them. Right now I see them as a third or fourth place team in this division. But if they get things right and right the ship this year you could be talking a wildcard berth in the playoffs.
4. Chicago Cubs (2014 Finish: 73-89, Fifth Place)
The Chicago Cubs aren't too far off from being a contender I'll say that, but I think they are a few years away from ending that 100 plus year World Series drought. Just like the Brewers, Cardinals, and Pirates, this Cubs team has a good 1-3 in their rotation with the signings of Jon Lester and Jason Hammel to the rotation. Add Edwin Jackson to that mix, that's a decent first three in a rotation. Behind that, they have Jake Arrieta, Felix Doubront, and Travis Wood. The reason I'm not putting them up there like other people are is because they lack what a lot of teams in this division have and that is a closer that you can rely on. Brewers have K-Rod. Cardinals have Rosenthal. Reds have Chapman. Pirates have Melancon. The other four teams in this division have that. Right now the Cubs closer would be either Jason Motte, the former Cardinals closer, and Henry Rondon. Rondon had a good season last year with almost 30 saves, but I don't know if you can rely on him or Motte. Bullpen is the Cubs weak link. This team has really good young talent that will make them a contender in a few years. Guys like Jorge Soler, Arismendy Alcantara, Javier Baez, Mike Olt, and Junior Lake. Anthony Rizzo has had some good power numbers to start his career. The thing that will help them win is their youth. They have some experienced veterans on this roster with Starlin Castro, Miguel Montero, Wellington Castillo, David Ross, Chris Coghlan, Ryan Sweeney and Dexter Fowler. Dexter Fowler will add some speed to this roster no question about that. Montero will provide some extra pop to what they already have offensively. This team is close, but they are a few years off.
5. Cincinnati Reds (2014 Finish: 76-86, Fourth Place)
It is really tough to put one of these teams in last place with how competitive the N.L. Central is. There isn't much preventing the Reds from being up higher, they just have to stay healthy. The other thing with me is this team has two solid starters with Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey. Getting rid of Latos kills their depth. They don't have too much depth with the rest of their rotation with Mike Leake and Manny Parra. I don't know if I can rely on Manny Parra for a full season for heaven sakes. With their bullpen, there isn't much behind flamethrower Aroldis Chapman with Dylan Axelrod, Burke Badenhop, Tony Cingrani, J.J. Hoover, and Sam Lecure. The biggest question on this team is can their big pieces stay healthy, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce had injury plagued seasons last year. Can they bounce back? If they do, I think they could make this division even more competitive. I like some of the power the Reds have with Votto, Bruce, Brandon Phillips and Todd Frazier. Billy Hamilton is the speedster on this team. It will interesting to see what he can bring for another year, he's kind of the Reds version of Carlos Gomez. I really like what Skip Schumaker brings to the table with how many positions he can play infield and outfield. So there are some good things about the Reds, but the question is if they can stay healthy for the 2015 season.

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